IPL 2020

India Cricket

IPL 2020

India Cricket


could ban intervened

I introduce the following terms for the sake of strategy:

  • High card = J ~ A
  • Medium card = 6 ~ 10
  • Small card = 2 ~ 5


The following is the strategy for the initial decision point:
  • Any pair can be used to make a huge raise.
  • Any of the following can be used to make a medium raise:
    • At least one high card is required.
    • Two cards of medium size
    • Suitable for 5/6


Any of the following can be used to fold:
  • Two little playing cards
  • Except for 5-6 suited cards, a little and medium card


Analysis of Ante & Raise
The likelihood and contribution to the return for all possible Ante and Raise results are shown in the table below. With an ideal player strategy, the house edge is 4.91 % in the lower right cell.

FINAL HAND BET WIN PROBABILITY RETURN
Junk 4 -4 27.96% -111.82%
Pair: 6's to 10's 4 0 3.26% 0.00%
Pair: J's to aces 4 4 3.46% 13.84%
Two pair 4 8 0.31% 2.51%
Three of a kind 4 12 0.10% 1.26%
Straight 4 16 0.14% 2.22%
Flush 4 24 0.00% 0.00%
Full house 4 40 0.00% 0.00%
Four of a kind 4 160 0.00% 0.00%
Straight flush 4 400 0.00% 0.00%
Royal flush 4 2000 0.00% 0.00%
Junk 6 -6 2.16% -12.96%
Pair: 6's to 10's 6 0 3.08% 0.00%
Pair: J's to aces 6 6 3.25% 19.53%
Two pair 6 12 1.17% 14.01%
Three of a kind 6 18 0.41% 7.40%
Straight 6 24 0.09% 2.11%
Flush 6 36 0.12% 4.29%
Full house 6 60 0.01% 0.54%
Four of a kind 6 240 0.00% 0.24%
Straight flush 6 600 0.00% 0.26%
Royal flush 6 3000 0.00% 0.00%
Junk 8 -8 0.06% -0.45%
Pair: 6's to 10's 8 0 2.22% 0.00%
Pair: J's to aces 8 8 2.64% 21.16%
Two pair 8 16 1.18% 18.91%
Three of a kind 8 24 0.55% 13.11%
Straight 8 32 0.01% 0.16%
Flush 8 48 0.01% 0.69%
Full house 8 80 0.06% 4.98%
Four of a kind 8 320 0.01% 2.21%
Straight flush 8 800 0.00% 0.37%
Royal flush 8 4000 0.00% 0.62%
Junk 10 -10 0.00% 0.00%
Pair: 6's to 10's 10 0 1.63% 0.00%
Pair: J's to aces 10 10 1.30% 13.00%
Two pair 10 20 0.66% 13.16%
Three of a kind 10 30 0.50% 15.12%
Straight 10 40 0.00% 0.00%
Flush 10 60 0.00% 0.00%
Full house 10 100 0.04% 4.43%
Four of a kind 10 400 0.01% 5.17%
Straight flush 10 1000 0.00% 0.00%
Royal flush 10 5000 0.00% 0.00%
Fold 1 -1 31.07% -31.07%
Fold 2 -2 7.67% -15.35%
Fold 3 -3 4.85% -14.56%
Fold 4 -4 0.00% 0.00%
Fold 5 -5 0.00% 0.00%
Fold 6 -6 0.00% 0.00%
Fold 7 -7 0.00% 0.00%
Total 100.00% -4.91%


The average wager towards the end of the hand will be 3.589772 times the Ante bonus. As a result, the Element of Risk is 4.9149 % /3.589772 = 1.37 %, defined as the projected loss ratio to the entire amount staked.

Analysis of Pocket Bonus
The likelihood and contribution to the return for all possible Pocket Bonus results are shown in the table below. With optimal player strategy, the house edge is 6.79 % in the lower right cell.

EVENT PAYS PROBABILITY RETURN
Pair of aces 25 0.45% 11.31%
Ace and face suited 20 0.91% 18.10%
Ace and face unsuited 10 2.71% 27.15%
Pair: 2's to K's 5 5.43% 27.15%
All other -1 90.50% -90.50%
Total 100.00% -6.79%


Analysis of Lo-Ball
The likelihood and contribution to the return for all possible Pocket Bonus results are shown in the table below. With optimal player strategy, the house edge is 6.79 % in the lower right cell.

EVENT PAYS PROBABILITY RETURN
7 high 100 0.16% 15.70%
8 high 50 0.55% 27.47%
9 high 15 1.33% 20.02%
10 high 5 2.71% 13.54%
J high 1 4.91% 4.91%
All other -1 90.35% -90.35%
Total 100.00% -8.71%

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